Manifest Manifested

One of the best weekends of my life at the best conference in the world.

I just got back from Manifest 2024, one of the best weekends of my life and easily the best conference I’ve ever been to. Calling it a “conference” or “unconference” or even a “festival” doesn’t cut it - it was more of a cross between a summer camp and a family reunion. Though ostensibly about prediction markets, it was really about everything intellectual. Steve Hsu describes it best: “Woodstock for nerds”.

The secret behind Manifest’s unparalleled social atmosphere is the people it attracted. Every single person I talked to, without exception, was both smart and interesting. I could walk up to people I had never met before and instantly insert myself into a conversation on ancient Greek military history, prediction markets applied to romance, or whether AI will end the world. I could look across the room, realize “oh wow that’s so-and-so from Twitter!”, introduce myself, and immediately become friends with them. To quote my new friend Matthew Adelstein of Bentham’s Bulldog:

In the normal world, people like me who obsess over philosophy, worry about AI and existential risks, know who Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander are, and read blogs are a minority. In the real world, when I tell people that I have a blog where I write about niche philosophy topics, I’m a bit embarrassed, a bit like one might be showing off their Lego collection. At Manifest, however, it became real, on a visceral level, that there were people like me, that we’re not some kind of weird alien offshoot from the human population. This may sound like a bit of an exaggeration, and perhaps it is, but it’s hard to overstate just how profound it is to realize that there are other people like you—that they’re not just internet-floating heads, but real, flesh and blood people.

(Byrne Hobart also wisely observed that “The Manifest conference has been a successful experiment: put enough introverts with common interests into a confined space and they’ll spontaneously turn into extroverts.”)

Manifest managed to create that magical feeling of serendipity, where you can flow through a space, passing from conversation to conversation, contribute to each one in turn, and have others do the same for you. One of the most heartwarming things was multiple people coming up to me to tell me that they listen to my podcast and that they like it. One person even said they listened to every episode. I’ve largely optimized for guests so far, but it’s truly special to see that real people enjoy what I make.

Manifest’s other draw is the high density of Twitter celebrities, all gathered in one place, and all easily accessible. At one point, I thought to myself, “what a fantastic venue this is, I’d love to talk to whoever set it up” and then realized Lightcone CEO Oliver Habryka was sitting right next to me.

I finally got to meet Dwarkesh Patel, and we talked about our podcasts. I talked with Scott Alexander about why blog posts are such a great medium for information, and what to do in Japan. I talked with Aella and Nate Soares about creating communally raised genetic superbabies to solve the AI alignment problem. I got to compliment Agnes Callard on her famously colorful outfits. I got Eliezer Yudkowsky in my BeReal and then discussed AI scaling with him, then asked Rob Bensinger why there’s no printed copy of the Sequences¹. I chatted with Steve Hsu (apparently a fan of my podcast!) about Dominic Cummings and governance in the UK. I got to hold Simone and Malcolm Collins’ tiny two-month-old daughter Industry Americus Collins while talking with them, Sarah Constantin, Andrew Rettek, Robin Hanson, and Razib Khan about raising kids. I spoke with Tracing Woodgrains about the word “progressivism” in politics, and with Johnny Anomaly about how I explained “eugenics” to my cousin. I talked to Liron Shapira about whether I should drop out of college. I debated with Barak Gila about whether Trump or Biden is better from a pro-tech, pro-growth Gray Tribe perspective, and got a selfie with Richard Hanania after thanking him for his tireless battle against anti-semites online. I watched Crémieux absolutely carry my team in trivia. I introduced Rob Miles to Impulse Labs, and showed Neil Gershenfeld’s work on self-replicating machines to General Fabrication CEO Matt Parlmer. I talked to Tristan Hume about AI interpretability, and to Katja Grace about why my p(doom) has gone down in the last year. I hung out with Byrne Hobart and Samo Burja at Curtis Yarvin’s house. I talked with Dwarkesh and Joe Carlsmith about power-seeking AI. I got plenty of time with the Manifold team: Stephen and James Grugett, Austin Chen, Rachel Weinberg, and Saul Munn, who did an amazing job from start to finish.

Then there were all my friends, both old and new: Werner Zagrebbi (who I’ve known since second grade), Kosher Salt, Alok Singh, Derik Kauffman, Tessa Barton, Bentham’s Bulldog, Whiteboard Programmer, Liam Robins, Max Tabarrok, Brian Chau, James Campbell, Roman Hauksson, Nick Simmons, and Topher Colby.

Gathering a minyan for Shabbat services

The events were great too. A couple of my favorites included an impromptu Shabbat service on Friday evening, Alok Singh’s explanation of how you can take the derivative of a discontinuous function at the discontinuity, Johnny Anomaly’s talk on genetic screening, Scott Alexander discussing forecasting with Nate Silver, and a debate between Holly Elmore (affirmative) and Brian Chau (negative) on AI pause. On Saturday night, there was a “night market” that was really more of a random exchange session (this is a common theme at Manifest). I won 1000 mana in a 1v1 trivia contest and traded a piece of knowledge² on a Post-It note for a small obsidian prism. The next night, Aella and Nathan Young ran the “Miss Alignment” costume contest, with people dressed up as various AI-related memes.

Nathan is the one in the gold dress. He absolutely slayed it if you ask me.

I was also lucky enough to get to interview Manifold co-founders Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen live. Both interviews were recorded and will be up on all platforms this week.

Preview of Manifold co-founder Stephen Grugett live on the Theo Jaffee Podcast!

The venue fit the occasion perfectly. Lighthaven is a complex of buildings on the site of the now-defunct Rose Garden Inn in Berkeley. When it’s not being used as an event space, it’s the working headquarters of Lightcone Infrastructure and home to many rationalists - a mix of village, hacker house, WeWork, and resort. Lighthaven has six buildings, each with their own unique character - from the wide open, more modern Aumann Hall to the darker, Gothic Bayes Hall. It’s absolutely bursting with places to sit and gather - giant indoor and outdoor sitting areas, more intimate upstairs salons, porches, roof decks, outdoor gazebos, an amphitheater, and even a small geodesic dome. Most rooms are tastefully appointed with soft carpets, low-to-the-ground seating, incredibly well-selected books, and ample natural lighting. Everything has variety, even the green spaces. The huge astroturfed green of Rat Park, meant for large gatherings, contrasts beautifully with the more contemplative Walled Garden, with its trees, flowers, and places to read, do work, or nap.

Lighthaven is the perfect incarnation of the principles of A Pattern Language. Most event venues feel dead - conference centers with square rooms, boring colors, folding chairs, artificial lighting, and ancient nylon carpets and vinyl walls. Lighthaven feels alive. Complete. Whole. It possesses Christopher Alexander’s “quality without a name”. You can read the Guide To Rationalist Interior Decorating, or look at the photos of Lighthaven on its website, but much like Manifest, the only way to really understand the vibes is to be there.

To everyone who made Manifest such a great experience, thank you. I can’t wait to be back next year.

1. TL;DR: because it’s really long and needs to be edited down, early attempts to do this ran into issues, and MIRI and Lightcone are busy with AI alignment anyway.

2. Did you know that the rulers of the three most important countries in World War I: King George V of Great Britain, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, and Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, were all first cousins, and their grandmother was Queen Victoria?